Opus 2020-113: Math Lesson

There is a lot of confusion about whether we should be panicking or not over this virus.  I thought I would run some simple numbers for your review. 

One of the problems we have is that the numbers of “cases” is totally dependent on how many tests are being run.  It seems that many people have been exposed and either did not “get” the virus, were asymptomatic or had symptoms so mild it was dealt with as a simple cold or a light flu.  In case you are not informed, “asymptomatic” is a term meaning you have no symptoms.  In a sense it means the virus is having no effect on you.

Another problem with the numbers has to do with the number of deaths.  The people in charge have admitted that they are counting as Covid deaths people who died from other things but had the virus present in their bodies.  For you laymen that means they are lying.  The numbers are really unreliable but, unlike cases, dead bodies can be counted. 

So I will give you a little math lesson using two numbers.  One is the number of deaths claimed by the authorities.  The other is the population of the United States where, once again, bodies can be counted.  I want you to get a feel for how much you have to fear, or not.

As I am writing the number of deaths reported is 78,503.  This is from World Meters at 5:33 P.M. Texas time on Friday, May 8, 2020.  Keep in mind this number will keep changing.  My example is for illustration purposes.

I got the population from the same Website but a different page.  When I checked the United States stood at 330,724,486.

We are doing a little math so let me give you an example of how this will work.  Every time I do percentages I need to do this because I can never automatically recall the process.  I will start with a problem in which you know the answer, or you should.  What percent of 100 is 15?  Before Common Core the answer would be 15%.  It is still 15% even if your teacher gives you credit for effort.

The formula is a/b*100.  In our sample a is the 15, b is the 100 and the answer is a percent.  So,

15/100*100= 15%

Now, since our formula worked, we do the same thing with our numbers concerning the virus.  It will be,

Number of deaths (a) divided by population (b) and multiplied by 100.

78,503/330,724,486*100 = 0.0237366760923774%

Compare this answer to the example above.  Notice there is a decimal point.  This does not say that the deaths are 2.3 percent or 23 percent.  This says that the deaths are 23thousandths of a percent, or round it off to 24 thousandths.  What that means is that if you multiplied the deaths by 100 to 785,000  you  would get up to a mortality rate of 2.4 percent. 

Your risk of dying from this disease is microscopically small.  For comparison, assume that everyone lived to be 100 years old.  That means that one person out of 100 would die each year for an average of 1%.  Now think about how used to that we are.

So relax.  Do a little math.  Do a little thinking.  And as always, wash your hands on general principle.  Also look both ways before you cross the street, don’t drive through a flooded section of the highway, don’t eat raw chicken, never trust a Democrat or a reporter...you get the idea.

homo unius libri