Opus 2024-102: Storm Clouds and Probability

I just read an essay by Sarah Hoyt about preparing for the long rains.  As usual she has an interesting way of saying things.  What almost kept me from reading it was that it was a reprint from twelve years ago, but, since I was not reading her twelve years ago, I continued.

The once consistent point she makes here and other places is that we really can’t know what will happen, when it will happen and how much it will touch us.  That is not a weasel position.  It is a statement of fact.

So what do we do?  Do we panic?  She is very adamant that we hang in there and that we will make it through.  I think that is wise.  It goes along with something Jack Spirko of The Survival Podcast use to always point out, the likelihood of a disaster is in inverse proportion to how serious it will be.  An example is that a planet destroying asteroid hitting the earth is very unlikely but a flat tire on a rainy night is fairly common.

I believe we need to be prepared.  That will look different for each of us.  There will be different levels of crisis to bring panic and that will be the biggest killer.  I plan on beginning my preparation with a solid confidence that God is in charge and nothing will happen to me that does not fit into His providential plan.  That does not mean I won’t suffer.  It means I can trust Him to be in control.  So when I look at food supplies, I could buy plastic sheds and pile up 30 year food packs or I could have a sensible but generous supply of canned goods under the bed.

Above all, I plan to not panic.  If the government goons come and herd us into camps then I will find a way to rejoice and look to the future.  If all of the bloggers are wrong and things return to normal, I can live with that too.

Remember to take your umbrella if you hate getting wet.  It looks like rain.

homo unius libri